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Ahead of the Curve: From divergence to convergence?
In our November 2024 paper, we highlighted a growing divergence between the US and Europe—where the US demonstrated structural and cyclical strength, while Europe appeared increasingly fragile. Since then, the macroeconomic landscape has shifted. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and the announcement of unexpectedly severe reciprocal tariffs have introduced new risks to US growth, while Europe’s fiscal response has helped cushion its economy. As a result, the transatlantic dynamic appears to be moving from divergence toward convergence. In this paper, we reassess the outlook through cyclical and structural lenses and explore the implications for fixed income investors.
Capital Group
Friday 18th July 2025
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